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The Data and Other Factors Indicate the NPP Can Secure a 2024 Victory

• By Ebenezer Albidar Narh
• August 13, 2024
• 0

Supporters of the opposition NDC may need to temper their overconfidence about winning the 2024 elections, as overconfidence could be detrimental to their expectations and the peace of our nation.

When Hon. Bryan Acheampong expressed his confidence in the NPP's ability to secure a 2024 victory by any means necessary, it is crucial to understand that, as a member of the law-abiding NPP, he was not suggesting illegal methods.

From a data perspective, since the onset of freer and fairer elections in the Fourth Republic, the NDC has won only twice—in the 2008 runoff by 40,586 votes and in 2012 by 325,863 votes, buoyed by the sympathy following the death of President Prof. Mills. In contrast, the NPP has recorded victories with margins of 673,706 in 2004, 984,570 in 2016, and 532,866 in 2020. Over the past 20 years, the NPP has averaged a margin of about 365,000 votes more than the NDC, surpassing the highest margin the NDC has ever achieved.

Despite global economic challenges driving economic hardships, data and other factors suggest that the NPP could secure a closely-fought win in 2024. These factors include the novelty of the DMB candidacy, his exceptional work ethic, and a more robust campaign effort. Additionally, the NDC’s decision to recycle a previously rejected former president, coupled with the NPP's superior sector-by-sector performance compared to the previous NDC government, further strengthens this possibility.

Supporters of both parties, particularly the NDC, must be reminded that this upcoming election will be highly competitive, with victory favoring the party that effectively persuades voters and strategizes to earn the win.

In mature democracies like the United States, there is no guarantee of a two-term limit for one party followed by another. Since 2008, the Democratic Party has consistently received more popular votes than their Republican counterparts, despite various challenges. Ghana's election system is based on a popular vote, requiring a candidate to secure over 50% of the valid votes to win.

As we approach the 2024 elections, it is essential to acknowledge the competitive nature of this election and understand that the outcome will reflect the efforts of the party that works hardest to earn the people's mandate.

For the sake of preserving peace in Ghana, let us all recognize the reality of this impending election and prepare for a hard-fought battle.


Source: Prince Ofosu Sefah