The Future Impact of Ethnicity and Religion on Ghanaian Elections

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The Future Impact of Ethnicity and Religion on Ghanaian Elections

US-based Financial Economist & Policy Analyst

The 2024 elections signaled a shift in Ghana’s electoral landscape, with religion emerging as a decisive factor alongside ethnicity.
The implications of this shift could influence political strategies, voter behavior, and national cohesion in future elections.

1. Longstanding Ethnic Voting Patterns

Historically, ethnicity has played a central role in Ghana’s elections:

The NPP has drawn strong support from Akan-dominated regions, particularly Ashanti and Eastern.
The NDC has been favored by the Ewe-majority Volta Region, Northern Ghana, and other non-Akan groups.
While floating voters exist, Ghanaian elections largely depend on these ethnic divides.

2. The Introduction of Religion as a Major Factor

Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia’s rise as the first Muslim Presidential Candidate from a major party has amplified religious considerations.

Muslim-Christian Divide: Ghana has a 71% Christian and 19% Muslim population. While religious tolerance is strong, political choices are increasingly reflecting religious identities.
Impact on Voter Turnout:
- The 2024 elections saw nearly 800,000 voters abstaining due to religious concerns, particularly in regions where religion and ethnicity overlap.

3. Structural Violence in Electoral Politics

Structural violence refers to systemic barriers that disadvantage certain groups in the political system. This manifests in Ghana’s elections through:

Political exclusion: Minority ethnic or religious groups often feel sidelined in governance and policy decisions.
Resource allocation: Development projects and state resources sometimes favor politically dominant regions, deepening disparities.
Electoral intimidation and misinformation: Ethnic and religious narratives can be used to manipulate voters, increasing polarization.

4. Potential Future Implications

Coalition Politics: Political parties may need to expand their coalitions beyond traditional ethnic bases and incorporate religious considerations into their campaigns.
Policy Shifts: Future governments may adopt inclusive policies addressing regional and religious concerns, particularly in education, public appointments, and economic development.
Rise of Religious Identity Politics: If left unchecked, religion could deepen political divisions, creating new fault lines in Ghana’s democracy.

5. Recommendations for Stability and Inclusion

Civic Education: Promote national unity through voter education emphasizing policy over identity politics.
Balanced Representation: Ensure political appointments and resource distribution reflect Ghana’s diversity.
Interfaith and Interethnic Dialogue: Political and religious leaders must actively discourage division and promote coexistence.

Policy Recommendations to Mitigate Electoral Challenges from Ethnicity & Religion

To prevent deepening ethnic and religious divisions in Ghana’s elections, strategic policy interventions are necessary. Below are key recommendations to enhance national cohesion, electoral fairness, and political inclusivity.

1. Electoral Reforms for Inclusivity

Proportional Representation: Consider electoral reforms allowing proportional representation, ensuring that ethnic and religious minorities have a stronger voice in governance.
Balanced Presidential Ticket: Political parties should strategically select running mates to ensure ethnic and religious balance in their leadership.
Strengthening the Electoral Commission (EC): The EC must monitor and curb divisive campaign rhetoric centered on religion or ethnicity.

2. National Policy on Political Appointments

Affirmative Inclusion Policy: Establish policies ensuring fair representation of ethnic and religious groups in government appointments and development projects.
Decentralized Development Initiatives: Equitable resource allocation is crucial to avoid perceptions of favoritism in infrastructure projects.

3. Strengthening Civic Education & National Identity

Reinforce National Values in Schools: Embed national identity education in school curricula to foster unity from an early age.
Expand the Role of the National Commission for Civic Education (NCCE):
- Conduct mass civic education campaigns on the dangers of ethnic and religious-based voting.
- Use local languages and religious leaders to reach grassroots communities.
Media Regulation & Responsible Political Messaging: The National Media Commission (NMC) must enforce strict guidelines against divisive political campaigns and misinformation.

4. Interfaith and Interethnic Dialogue Mechanisms

Political & Religious Leaders’ Forum: Establish periodic dialogue forums between political, religious, and traditional leaders to discuss national unity issues.
Peace Pacts Before Elections: Presidential candidates must commit to non-divisive campaigns through publicly signed peace agreements, witnessed by religious and traditional leaders.

5. Economic & Social Integration Policies

Balanced Infrastructure Development: Government projects must be equitably spread across all regions to reduce perceptions of favoritism.
Economic Empowerment in Minority Regions:
- Invest in job creation and education in underrepresented ethnic and religious communities.
- Reduce economic disparities that fuel political tensions.

Conclusion

For Ghana to maintain democratic stability, policymakers must intentionally depoliticize ethnicity and religion. Implementing these policies will reduce voter apathy, build national cohesion, and ensure fair representation in governance.

About the Author: Dr. Jabil Sayibu

Dr. Jabil Sayibu is a US-based Financial Economist & Policy Analyst with over 15 years of experience at the U.S. Department of Defense, specializing in fiscal strategy, economic analysis, and budget optimization.

Professional Expertise

Chartered Economist and Financial Manager
Senior Advisor on financial policies, risk management, and regulatory compliance
Expert in economic forecasting and fiscal sustainability
Extensive experience in public finance and policy development

Academic Credentials

Doctorate in Finance – Liberty University, USA
LLM in Corporate Finance Law – University of Westminster, UK
MBA in Finance – American University, USA
Bachelor’s in Business Administration

Dr. Sayibu is passionate about leveraging financial insights to strengthen economic resilience and operational efficiency, driving sound financial policies for long-term sustainability.